Electric Trucks to Become Mainstream in the Next 20 Years: Report

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Key enabling technologies for electric trucks—which include Lithium-ion batteries, electric motors, fuel cells & charging infrastructure—are witnessing a major transition

In its latest report called “Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks 2023-2043”, IDTechEx estimates that the truck market is at the cusp of a relatively rapid shift to electric powertrains. The report analysed the medium & heavy-duty Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) truck markets. The report highlights that the availability of cheap low-carbon ‘green’ hydrogen will be vital to FCEVs delivering the environmental credentials on which they are being sold.

IDTechEx said: Despite the medium and heavy-duty truck fleet representing less than 10% of the global on-road vehicle stock, large diesel truck engines and high average annual mileage mean that the truck sector contributes around 40% of the global transport sector’s greenhouse gas emissions. This equates to about 5.1% of all global fossil fuel-derived CO2 emissions. It is this disproportionate contribution to emissions which makes trucks a target for governments. If the global community is going to meet its targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit the impact of climate change, then rapid decarbonisation of the truck sector must be a priority. Consequently, the days of the fossil fuel-powered combustion engine truck are numbered.

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The report noted that globally, governments are increasingly recognising the potentially catastrophic repercussions of unfettered climate change and witnessing the detrimental impact on human health from vehicle exhaust pollutant emissions in urban environments.

Such an effect is causing the policymakers to take decisive action, tighten exhaust emission regulation, and plot timelines to net zero emission. As a result, the coming decades are expected to witness vehicle manufacturers switching to zero on-road exhaust emission powertrain solutions.

The past 18 months have seen substantial progress in truck electrification, noted the report. It further added that the supply chains are maturing, and major tier-1 suppliers are putting substantial resources into parts electrification and shifting focus away from traditional combustion engine powertrains.

The report contains 80 forecast lines for zero-emission truck sales, market penetration, battery demand, fuel cell demand, and market value. The technical and economic aspects of zero-emission truck deployment have also been discussed in the report, with a focus on Europe, the U.S., and China. The full report can be accessed here.


 

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