EVs Could Surpass Petrol Cars In Norway By The End Of 2024

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The Nordic nation, with a population of 5.5 million, aims to be the first country to cease the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2025. At the beginning of this year, nine out of ten newly sold cars were battery electric vehicles (BEVs).

Norway is on track to become the first country where battery electric vehicles (BEVs) outnumber petrol cars by the end of this year or early 2025, according to calculations by Reuters and analysts. This transition has been fueled by significant incentives, partly enabled by the country’s substantial oil and gas wealth. However, surpassing the number of diesel vehicles in Norway is expected to take a few more years.

The Nordic nation, with a population of 5.5 million, aims to halt the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2025. Already, BEVs represented 90% of new car sales at the start of this year. Following Norway’s example could lead to an earlier global peak in oil demand than currently anticipated by the International Energy Agency, which forecasts it before 2030.

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Norway’s shift to BEVs has been costly, with the government exempting BEVs from taxes on internal combustion engine cars and investing in public charging infrastructure. As of March 15, BEVs made up 24.3% of Norway’s 2.9 million cars, compared to 26.9% for petrol vehicles. With new BEV sales outpacing those of pure petrol cars, the number of BEVs is expected to surpass petrol cars by the end of this year or next.

Despite a recent slowdown in BEV sales and some reduction in tax incentives, the share of BEV sales remains high, reaching a record 92.1% in January. The government’s removal of a value-added tax exemption for BEVs costing over 500,000 Norwegian crowns has made some models more expensive, yet BEVs still enjoy substantial tax breaks.

The popularity of BEVs has led to a decline in petrol and diesel demand, with sales at Norwegian gas stations dropping by around 8% since 2021. The presence of nearly 340,000 hybrid cars on Norwegian roads, mostly plug-in hybrids with petrol engines, has helped sustain some demand for fossil fuels. However, hybrids are losing market share as government incentives are withdrawn.

The Norwegian EV Association expects BEVs to constitute 95% of all new car sales this year. If we achieve the goal of 100% zero-emission new cars by 2025, BEVs could surpass both petrol and diesel cars combined by 2029.

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