Soaring EV Shipments Forecasted To Dominate Market

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  • Nearly 15 million electric cars (battery electric and plug-in hybrid) are expected to be shipped worldwide in 2023.
  • Get an in-depth look at the projections, regional preferences, and governmental policies shaping the future of mobility.

The electric vehicle (EV) industry is poised to witness a remarkable surge, with electric car shipments predicted to ramp up by 19%, totalling approximately 17.9 million units in 2024. The forthcoming increase signifies a dynamic shift, spotlighting electric cars, slated to constitute 97% of the total EV shipments in 2024.

In a global purview, shipments of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to ascend from 9 million units in 2022 to 11 million by the close of 2023. Meanwhile, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are slated for a more gradual growth, predicted to escalate from 3 million units in 2022 to 4 million by 2023.

In retrospect, 2022 was a substantial year for the industry, with car segments notably dominating the charts, boasting over 11 million units shipped, a testament to a burgeoning market demand. As the sector ventured into 2023, a pronounced upswing was observed across all categories, with the total soaring to over 15 million units, spearheaded once again by the car segment, which nearly touched the 15 million mark.

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Analysts have noted diverse preferences among consumers from various regions. While Western markets like the U.S., Canada, and Japan show a growing affinity for PHEVs, attributed to their dual-fuel convenience for longer journeys, regions like Western Europe and China exhibit a stronger proclivity towards BEVs, driven by their lower operational costs and environmental advantages.

Governmental policies aiming to curtail vehicular emissions have catalyzed shifts in automaker strategies, with several aiming to nullify tailpipe emissions from new light-duty vehicles by 2035, and others aspiring to elevate EV sales to 40-50% of their annual U.S. totals by 2030. These initiatives have fostered the entry of new players in the market, launching innovative EV platforms.

Jonathan Davenport, Sr. Director Analyst at Gartner, highlighted that stringent emission norms are nudging automakers towards pivoting more than half of their vehicle models to EVs by 2030. He also emphasized the critical role of power generation and network capacity as potential hindrances to the mass deployment of EVs by 2030, urging nations to foster incentives for off-peak charging hours to prevent straining the power grid.

The analysts predict a nearing parity in pricing between BEVs and their ICE counterparts by 2027, potentially catalyzing a more rapid global adoption of EVs, provided the necessary infrastructure is in place to support the burgeoning demand.

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