AI laptop are expected to have 50% market share in 2025, with at least an NPU or AI accelerator included along with major CPUs and GPUs.
The global PC market experienced a 0.2% year-on-year (YoY) shipment decline in Q4 2023, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of decline, despite the holiday season. Both original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and original design manufacturers (ODMs) expect improvement in the first half of 2024.
A 14% YoY shipment decline was observed for the full year in 2023, attributed to slowdowns in both commercial and consumer sectors. Product launches in the second half of 2023, to be shipped in 2024, affected shipment momentum. PC inventory levels normalised to a healthy state, paving way for new products.
PC OEM rankings remained consistent throughout 2023 due to soft demand and inventory adjustments. Lenovo and HP experienced mid-single-digit YoY shipment growth in Q4, while Dell saw a 9% YoY decline. Apple maintained resilience with a 2% YoY shipment growth in Q4.
For the full year 2023, Lenovo and HP led the market with 24% and 21% market shares, respectively. HP saw 5% YoY shipment decline due to warm restocking momentum in North America. Dell held a 16% market share but experienced a 20% shipment decline due tweak commercial demand. Apple faced a 14% shipment decline but maintained a market share of around 9%.
A Counterpoint report predicted that AI-powered PCs (Artificial Intelligence PC) will take centre stage in 2024, with Intel and AMD offering CPU solutions  (Meteor Lake and Hawk Point) for next-generation AI PCs. Q4 2023 already saw announcements of new AI PC products, with an expectation of major replacements in H2 2024. It is expected that AI laptop market share will be 50% in 2025, with at least an NPU or AI accelerator included along with major CPUs and GPUs.
AI laptop penetration is expected to increase in the coming years, driven by enterprise spending recovery and the destocking process in 2023. Qualcomm’s Nuvia-based Snapdragon X Elite solutions for Arm PCs are anticipated to be a significant driver throughout 2024, followed by Apple’s success with the M-series MacBook series.
